Long-Term Impact of Interregional Migrants on Population Prediction

Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due to emigrations from rural areas, which results in rural–urban disparities. As demographic social divisions between areas increase, maintenance of infrastructure facilities becomes much more difficult. For sustainability, accurate predictions long-term population distributions are needed. This study improves the Cohort Component Analysis (CCA) into two aspects “dependent structure” model system. The migration sub-model expanded include related structures available job opportunities workforce each region, specified using spatial autoregressive model. advantage improved CCA provides rational future projections by considering longitudinal changes distribution workforce. simulation proposed gives an alternative impact Japan, compared conventional CCA. show that Japanese populations will become concentrated a lower rate. Furthermore, manufacturing employees be attracted metropolitan or regions industrial zones, number retailers undergo over time, even urbanized areas.